An NGO navigating systemic fragility

Anticipating conditions that shape childhood survival

The context

An NGO working in fragile regions supports early childhood nutrition (the first 2,000 days). Rising food insecurity, political instability, and climate shocks make it difficult to plan effective interventions.

The challenge

Leaders must decide how to allocate scarce funding, but they lack a forward-looking picture of emerging risks and systemic pressures.

How LIFT supports the process

• Detects weak signals: LIFT scans global and local sources for early signs of disruption (e.g. crop failures, price spikes, policy changes).
• Connects patterns: Signals are clustered into broader trends such as “fragile food supply chains” or “drought-driven migration.”
• Explores consequences: Through scenario modelling, NGOs can test hypotheses like “What if drought intensifies over three years?” and assess ripple effects on child nutrition.

The outcome

The NGO still makes the hard funding choices, but with greater clarity and traceability. LIFT ensures interventions are guided by evidence-based foresight rather than guesswork, strengthening both impact and accountability.